Gridiron Challenge: Week 8 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Week 8 brings us some pretty interesting story lines.

First and foremost, the NFL returns to London, the site of that ugly, messy, low-scoring game between the Giants and Dolphins last season. Oh, how memories of that game still bring nightmares to fantasy football owners. But while last year's event was a stinker, this one shapes up as the complete opposite -- a fantasy football dream matchup between the Chargers and Saints. The starting quarterbacks rank second (Philip Rivers) and third (Drew Brees) in points in the Gridiron Challenge to date. The teams, meanwhile, rank third (Chargers) and fifth (Saints) in total points scored. We can all hope but one thing: that the teams have hounded the grounds crew to keep the Wembley Stadium turf in prime shape for Sunday, because that is the key to this contest.

But Chargers-Saints won't provide all of this week's fireworks. Bengals-Texans in Houston -- a game originally scheduled for Week 10 but bumped up to Sunday due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Ike -- should be a reasonably high-scoring affair. Cincinnati and Houston each rank among the five worst teams in terms of points allowed, and the Texans and their opponents have each scored 20-plus points each of the past four weeks.

Finally, three of the seven worst defenses -- in terms of points per game allowed -- hit the road for games nicely stacked in their opponents' favor. The Chiefs travel to New York to battle the Jets, the Seahawks visit San Francisco and the Rams head to New England to face a Patriots team coming off a strong Monday night performance.

Not a bad schedule for a bye-heavy week, wouldn't you say? Nope, there are no worries about a lack of offensive options in Week 8.

Bull market: Invest now

Lee Evans, WR, Bills (5.6): He has a touchdown reception in each of his past three games, and now he gets to go up against the division rival Dolphins, whose secondary is so weak, it made rookie Joe Flacco look like an accomplished NFL quarterback in Week 7. Plus, Evans has eight career touchdowns in eight games against the Dolphins, including five at Dolphin Stadium, where the teams battle this week. From there, Evans' matchups are pretty strong the following two weeks; the Jets (Week 9) and Patriots (Week 10) rank 20th and 22nd in terms of opponents' passer rating.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (6.0): Apparently the reason Fred Taylor departed the Jaguars' last game early was that he suffered his third career concussion, and that's not an injury to take lightly. Taylor will wear a bulkier, more padded helmet to help protect him beginning this week, but the threat that he could be knocked out at any moment helps boost Jones-Drew's stock. It also, incidentally, could cause the Jaguars to ease up on Taylor's workload, as could the fact that Jones-Drew averaged 5.7 yards per carry with two scores handling most of the rushing chores in Week 6. The bottom line is that Jones-Drew should be a strong bet for double-digit carries in each of the next three weeks, when the Jaguars battle run defenses that rank among the game's bottom seven (Cleveland, Week 8, 26th; Cincinnati, Week 9, 27th; and Detroit, Week 10, 31st). Those defenses, incidentally, have allowed 27 rushing touchdowns in 19 games combined.

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots (4.9): Check his health status, though early reports are that Morris' knee injury, which knocked him out of his Week 7 game, isn't severe enough to keep him out this week. That's good news, because his next two matchups are incredibly attractive, the Rams' and Colts' 30th- and 28th-ranked run defenses. Be aware that Morris' 138 rushing yards, one touchdown and 19 fantasy points this past Monday night came in one half; he didn't play after halftime. Given a full 60 minutes -- assuming a full week of practice time -- he should manage those numbers at the bare minimum against each of these next two opponents.

One-week ponies: Week 8

Isaac Bruce, WR, 49ers (SEA, 4.6 price tag): This one has a lot to do with his low price tag and the matchup, because the truth is that Bruce isn't a reliable top-25 receiver for GC purposes, at least consistently. Look back to Week 2, though, and you'll notice that Bruce went wild for 153 receiving yards against these Seahawks. And with the 49ers having some real trouble finding any other reliable receiving targets in most weeks, Bruce should again be prepared to torch Seattle's secondary.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (IND, 5.3): Even with Tennessee utilizing a backfield committee -- and a darned good one at that -- there's enough to go around for both Johnson and LenDale White to be worthwhile when the matchup calls. Case in point: Week 7, when both backs topped 20 points against the Chiefs. Indianapolis represents a comparably weak run defense to Kansas City's, demonstrating in Weeks 2 (versus Minnesota) and 3 (versus Jacksonville) how incapable it is of stopping teams with two-headed rushing attacks. Count on at least 15 touches for each Titans running back, with the likelihood both can challenge the 20-point plateau again.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets (KC, 5.7): If you didn't hop on the Jones bandwagon two weeks ago as I recommended, surely you must do so for this game, the strongest matchup he'll face the entire season. Jones continues to run like a man totally rested and refreshed, with back-to-back 15-point fantasy efforts. Meanwhile, his opponent, the Chiefs, have surrendered 537 yards and six scores on the ground in their past two games combined, and are allowing a league-worst 207.2 yards per game with 12 scores for the season. Jones might yet drop back to a more ordinary No. 2/flex value -- and that's generally beneath what I consider the GC cutoff for starter status -- in a few weeks, but he has fresh legs and a cakewalk matchup for Week 8. And that's all that matters to me.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles (ATL, 6.6): Brian Westbrook is due back for the Eagles, but I'm anticipating he'll be brought back slowly, with McNabb more of the team's offensive focal point. Besides, the Falcons' defense is a sieve in the secondary, having allowed 880 yards and six scores through the air in their past three games. With his receivers finally beginning to look healthy, McNabb should be primed for a big day.

New York Jets defense/special teams (KC, 4.4): My sleeper pick of the week, this is a perfect opportunity to save big bucks on a probable top-10 point-getter. The Jets are hungry and motivated coming off a painful loss in Oakland and need a bounce-back victory in a bad way to keep pace in an improved AFC East. Meanwhile, the Chiefs could have backups starting at running back (Kolby Smith) and quarterback (Tyler Thigpen). Kansas City also has two wins in its past 11 road games, averaging 11.5 points in those contests. This one should be a rout in the Jets' favor.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (@NO in London, England, 6.9): I'm not afraid to bring up the numbers. In last year's event at Wembley Stadium in London, the Giants and Dolphins' quarterbacks completed a combined 48 percent of their pass attempts, totaling 208 yards and one score. But I'll go on record as saying that this year's event will be more exciting. For one thing, Rivers and Drew Brees are much better quarterbacks than Cleo Lemon and the 2007 pre-playoff version of Eli Manning. For another, the weather reports are more favorable in London than they were for last year's contest, which portends vastly improved field conditions for the dreadful turf at Wembley. When people call for a shootout in this year's game, I agree with them. Rivers will be up to the task of beating up on the Saints' 21st-ranked pass defense.

Jeremy Shockey, TE, Saints (SD in London, England, 4.8): A hernia he suffered in his return to the lineup in Week 7 puts his status in the questionable department, but if he's cleared to go, the matchup says he's one of the week's stronger GC choices. Shockey was targeted a team-high seven times this past week, and now he faces a Chargers defense that has allowed a league-high five touchdowns and 74 fantasy points to tight ends.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans (CIN, 5.4): This is probably his swan song as a viable GC play, because he'll get the Vikings and Ravens in Weeks 9 and 10, not to mention the threat of Ahman Green forcing his way into an even split of the rushing chores. Still, Slaton's matchup is a fine one for the third consecutive week, against a Bengals defense that has allowed Thomas Jones and Mewelde Moore multiple-touchdown, 20-plus-point GC efforts the past two weeks. By the way, if you're worried about Green's 15 touches to Slaton's 20 in Week 7, be aware that seven of Green's came in the fourth quarter, compared to three for Slaton. So it was a bit of a garbage-time scenario, an angle that makes sense with the Texans needing to maintain Slaton's workload over the long haul.

LenDale White, RB, Titans (IND, 5.4): Ditto my comments on Chris Johnson, but to support White's case, the three plays the Titans ran from inside the Chiefs' 10 in Week 7 were all rushing plays by White. He converted two of them for scores. White is the clear touchdown choice of the two, with Johnson the yardage fiend, but they're also alternating series more often lately than you'd think.

No chance they'll be in my Week 8 lineup

San Diego Chargers defense, every Chiefs running back, Marques Colston, Justin Fargas, Marvin Harrison, Todd Heap, Jamal Lewis, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Darren McFadden, Mewelde Moore/Willie Parker, Dominic Rhodes.

Tristan's Week 8 lineup
Total points: 781.
Percentage: 97.6. Overall rank: 4,866th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 180th.

Pos.PlayerTeamPointsLockMkt.Diff.
QBMatt SchaubTexans966.96.9--
QBDonovan McNabbEagles946.66.6--
RBClinton PortisRedskins1247.17.1--
RBThomas JonesJets735.75.7--
WRAndre JohnsonTexans725.86.10.3
WRSteve SmithPanthers605.45.4--
TEChris CooleyRedskins404.14.1--
KKris BrownTexans444.04.0--
D/STNew York Jets defense/special teams494.44.4--
Pos.: Player position; Points: Year-to-date points earned in GC; Lock: Price locked in on my roster; Mkt.: Current market price; Diff.: Difference in price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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